How often do we hear dire, existential predictions? Why do proponents of a particular policy/ideology always warn that everything is at stake, and everything will be lost if you don’t… (you fill in the blank).

Always look beneath the surface.

• Does this help the speaker get what they want?
• Do they personally benefit from what they want you to do?
• Is the connection from the problem to the solution as strong as they imply?

For example, at a recent board meeting in my shul, people who wanted a specific candidate for rabbi, used the line “this shul is doomed in 5-10 year’s, if we don’t hire this person.”

Once I hear apocalyptic predictions I try to look deeper.

• Does hiring this person guarantee survival?
• Isn’t the root cause of a shul’s demise, a lack of attendance?
• How will this person increase attendance?
• Do the supporters promise to attend more often? Or will it be attended by only the “usual suspects”?
  • Weekday services?
  • Classes?
  • Will YOU step up to work on the day-to-day operations?

In the end, I don’t think people’s behavior will change.

I don’t think this candidate is our savior.

I don’t think our chances for survival improve to the extent being suggested.